Ten years following the UK stumbled into a rushed public vote that divided the country and caused chaos, a warning emerges from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and citizens drifted into Brexit and the same could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking upheavals for which nobody is equipped.
That is the message from two prominent writers from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a potentially fraught and monumental public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gain traction rapidly," the commentator said. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Released Volume Intends to Stir Debate
The team have studied the political, economic and cultural reasons for any structural alteration in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the issue with a series of lectures that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts all parties, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose implications have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily polarised community where people who have lost are resistant to defeat and the people who have won don't know exactly what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say that moment is imminent, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the possibility, leaving it unclear whether or when there might be a national vote.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Partisan language for and against unity has hidden the absence of substantive discussion, noted the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the notion but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to achieve it is mostly absent. A lot has occurred in academia but scarcely any elected officials or activists seek to involve themselves with the essentials. As an example, what sort of state should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, neither author advocates unification or the existing arrangement. Both composes two articles that strive for impartiality in laying out the rationale for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, marshalling economic and societal statistics, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Arguments encompass identity markers, duties, health services, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of unionist unrest. The goal is to educate and encourage discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there hasn't quite been a discussion," commented the writer. "Debate suggests an recognition of the notion that there may exist valid points on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where voters say they support unity but oppose increased taxation or introducing a new flag to recognise unionists' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin must establish what the plan from pro-unification movements is other than just declaring: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," stated O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist believes a national vote in his lifetime is probable and that it might occur suddenly. "There might be just a reckless or a bad or a negligent official who says: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, justified points, he said. "One side will prevail here and the other side will in the end be defeated but all factions has got important lessons to acquire from the opposing arguments."
Call for Wider Discussion
Westminster needed to join the dialogue, urged O’Toole. "This concerns your state. It is a British issue just as much as it is an Irish matter."
